Note: This is the second of three articles setting the stage for the 2014 elections. The following is an overview of California House races and the next will be an overview of contested legislative races. After these three pieces, we will get back to tech politics in particular.
Most every president’s party faces losses in the sixth year of an administration. Given the disastrous rollout of Obamacare, this year will be no exception. Given what many still consider a sluggish economy and a 24-hour news cycle ready to pounce on any problems associated with the Affordable Care Act, it should be a tough year for Democrats. To be fair, I see a few more races being competitive than many observers. Here’s the rundown so far:
CD 7
Former Republican Senate candidate Elizabeth Emken, former Republican congressman Doug Ose and first term incumbent Democrat Congressman Ami Bera, MD will fight it out in this Elk Grove/East Sacramento district. Bera survived a close race last time and his support for Obamacare could cost him his seat this time. Advantage Republicans
CD 9
The only good news for Democratic Congressman Jerry McNerney is that none of his challengers really stand-out as strong fund raisers at this point. The district has 45% registered Democrats but Reps and DTS voters could combine in November to turn the seat Red. Troubled Stockton is the center of this district. Slight advantage Democrats
CD 10
Were you to look up "swing district" in the dictionary&hellip There are 124,667 Reps and 120,750 Dems in this Stanislaus district but many of the Dems are conservative Latino voters. Democrat farmer/beekeeper Michael Eggman has taken a page from Denham’s book and is running against the congressman as an outsider who understands Ag. Eggman could one day be a strong candidate but this time, I think Denham survives with Republican, American Independent and DTS votes. Advantage Republicans
CD 11
18 term Congressman George Miller has decided to retire. This means he has likely concluded the democrats have no chance of regaining a majority in the House or Senate. Yet a Democrat will take Miller’s mostly CoCo County seat. Looking at the race are Superintendent of Public Instruction Tom Torlakson, who has a difficult reelection challenge, State Senator Mark DeSaulnier (who until 20 minutes ago was a candidate for pro Tem) and Assemblymembers Susan Bonilla and Joan Buchanan,
CD 21
Same story here in Hanford as in CD 10. Republican Congressman David Valadao is hardworking and well-liked. This time he squares off against two Democrats in this very conservative district. For the well-organized Valadao to lose, he will need to make a significant mistake. Advantage Republicans
CD 24
For years this central coast district has produced moderates of both parties. So far the announced competitors, a couple of councilmembers and a retiree, are uninspiring. At the moment– Advantage eight term Congresswoman Lois Capps, Democrat
CD 26
Ventura County Congresswoman Julia Brownley faces a significant challenge from Republican Assemblymember/Afghanistan veteran/Naval officer Jeff Gorrell. Democrats hold a 40% to 36% edge in the district but if there is more trouble with the economy, ACA, NSA or the Administration, look for Gorrell to turn the seat. Toss-up
CD 31
Rep Congressman Gary Miller faces two proven Latino candidates in former Congressman "Working Joe" Baca and Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar. In a changing district it could be tough for Miller to hold this seat especially since it strays from his base in Diamond Bar. After a Spring spent beating each other up, can a retread like Baca or a youthful mayor beat a Republican incumbent in 2014? I doubt it. Advantage Republicans
CD 36
This desert hotspot has 38% Republicans and 38% Democrats. This would have been unheard of 10 years ago as this was solid GOP territory. An influx of Latino voters has changed that. Never-the-less Republican Assemblymember Brian Nestande and former state senator Ray Haynes see an opportunity to take out sitting Congressman and MD Paul Ruiz. Ruiz is fighting hard to keep his seat but Haynes and Nestande will paint him as an architect of Obamacare. Toss up
CD 52
Quiet, effective Democrat Scott Peters is in for the fight of his life against former San Diego Councilmember and gay-Republican Carl DeMaio. Advantage Republicans
Dem v. Dem:
CD 15
During the last cycle, 19 term Congressman Pete Stark called challenger and fellow Democrat Eric Swalwell every name in the book. Stark-weary, voters picked Swalwell, the Dublin councilmember who now sits on important-to-tech committees; Science, Space and Technology and Homeland Security (think cybersecurity). Former San Leandro Mayor and current State Senator Ellen Corbett has long eyed that seat and thought it would be her turn to move back east this year when Stark was to retire but Swalwell beat her to the punch two years ago. Corbett still wants the seat but hard to say if she will actually mount a campaign to take out first termer Swalwell. Emily’s List is pushing her to make the run. Advantage Swalwell
CD 17
Longtime Silicon Valley Congressman Mike Honda is a nice man. Everyone says so. He has spent years advocating for kids and social services in his district– a district that is home to Cisco, Apple and many tech firms. In his mid 70s, Honda is to put it mildly, not exactly Mr. Technology.
Challenger and fellow Democrat Ro Khanna is though. Khanna has been endorsed by many of the tech community’s key players. Khanna did time in the Obama Administration’s Department of Commerce as an undersecretary and is a partner at Silicon Valley’s tech law firm; Wilson, Sonsini et. al. Now he wants to represent Silicon Valley in the House and is raising money at a feverish clip. Polls say Honda holds a commanding lead but Khanna will throw out all the stops to win this race. Hard to beat a well-liked incumbent though. Advantage Honda
What Goes Around– Comes Around
The Last Tech Politics post was all about the campaigns for Speaker and pro Tem. A quick update– Lots of rumors about current Senate pro Tem Darrell Steinberg replacing Judiciary Chair Noreen Evans. Supposedly Evans was hopping mad about the demotion and has thrown her support for pro Tem to Kevin DeLeon. Scott Lay reported earlier in the week that DeLeon is circulating a letter claiming he now has the votes to replace Steinberg and Senator Ricardo Lara has congratulated de Leon via Twitter. Steinberg’s name is still over the Room 205 door however.
