Correction: This article originally to referred to Ed Rendon instead of Anthony Rendon, a member of the California Assembly.
With the New Year upon us every techie’s attention turns to uh, politics. Well sort of but 2014 is an election year and that means there will be contested races for Governor, Controller, Treasurer, Superintendent of Public Instruction and realistically as many 15 contested legislative races.
The most interesting, perhaps important elections in 2014 are those that won’t appear on any ballot. To win these two seats requires a handful of votes typically cast in secret. The stakes are enormous and the campaigning has been underway for almost a year now. Yet there are no TV ads, mailers or phone banks. The race is on to become the next Assembly Speaker and Senate pro Tem. This is the last year in the Assembly for Speaker John Perez and the last year in the Senate for pro Tem Darrell Steinberg. Perez has indicated he will run against Board of Equalization member Betty Yee for Controller in the Democratic primary. It’s less clear what Steinberg will do but everyone thinks he will run next for Mayor of Sacramento when Kevin Johnson terms-out in 2016.
So who wants to lead the legislature going forward? The one given is that both winners will be Democrats.. There are interesting wrinkles in both races worth watching. On the Assembly side we now have two classes of members– the 6 year members (6Y) and the new 12 year class of members (12Y). There are those 6Y members in the Assembly that have positioned their candidacy for Speaker as sort of a benevolent caretaker. They opine that the 12Ys who were elected just over a year ago, don’t really have the chops to be Speaker just yet. Thus, an experienced caretaker is needed.
As a group, the 12Ys, have yet to bristle at this notion but it’s just a matter of time until someone calls BS on this thinly-veiled insult. The following 6Ys are interested in the caretaker job and are running hard to win:
The Assembly:
Assembly 6Ys
Toni Atkins, Atkins is the Assembly Majority Leader from San Diego. She terms-out in 2016, as do all the 6Ys. She has from time-to-time had the encouragement and support of Speaker Perez as his replacement. She is well-regarded and bright but it’s not clear just how good a fundraiser she is– which is arguably most of the job. If she wins, it’s likely she would inherit/keep much of Perez’ current staff.
Luis Alejo A smart guy that keeps his head down and does the work. Could be a good compromise candidate. One question is does he have the staff to help him win? You need politically well-connected staff in the building to win this job. An outside campaign consultant can’t win it for you.
Mike Gatto Very bright, capable fundraiser that suffered a sad shock last month when his father was shot and killed in his own home. Gatto is an effective fundraiser that has from time-to-time annoyed if not outright angered some fellow members (Hall). He has experienced staff that can help him win.
Rich Gordon Very nice man who has had a low profile in Sacramento. Some say Perez is encouraging his candidacy. He needs more experienced and political staff help to be competitive.
Henry Perea His father practically invented Latino politics in the central valley. Has a history and strong connections. Some wonder how hard he’d work to get the job and may be too moderate to get it.
Das Williams A well liked policy wonk. Likely not enough of a fundraiser to be Speaker.
Assembly 12Ys
Christina Garcia She doesn’t want the job but is widely admired for her leadership abilities and and regarded as fearless (see her calling for Sen. Calderon to resign). She may well be the smartest member of the Legislature. She has excellent staff help in Tim Reardon, an experienced operator that could get her the job if/when she wants it. If there is no clear frontrunner by Memorial Day, some may look to Garcia as the solution.
Jimmy Gomez Has wanted the job from day 1. His COS John Scribner can get him there. Good fundraiser. May well be too ambitious to get it.
Marc Levine A dark horse who has been quietly effective. His COS Michael Miiller has been through these battles time and again in his long tenure in the building. He can make Levine "real."
Kevin Mullin Very highly regarded. Can raise money and understands politics at the grassroots level. Does his staff have the talent and ability though?
Anthony Rendon
Hired talented building operative Bill Wong as his COS to get him this job. Wong could make it happen.
Senate:
The Senate race is a little more straightforward, with one exciting wrinkle. The contenders:
Kevin de Leon Been campaigning for the job since he lost the Speakership to Perez over in the Assembly. Has significant detractors among female members of his caucus though. Many are wondering about his name being mentioned in the roiling Calderon scandal.
Mark DeSaulnier Very low-key, pleasant member that has been touting himself as an alternative to de Leon. Not enough horses on his staff or Labor connections to get the job done.
Bob Hertzberg He’s the wrinkle. And a very interesting one at that. Some in the Senate see Hertzberg as the answer and don’t want to wait the full year it will take to get him on board on Room 205. Since there’s no law that says the Speaker or pro Tem must be a member– Hertzberg, who is a shoe-in for the 18th SD seat, could open up an office across from the Capitol and start being pro Tem when Steinberg steps-down this Summer. It would give Hertzberg a chance to play a major role in ensuring Caucus wins in November since he will need those wins to be an effective pro Tem. Stranger things have happened.
Holly Mitchell Strong fundraiser and a good political operative. Could be the answer for women members of the Caucus that are wary of de Leon.
Senators also flirting with making a bid: Marty Block, Cathleen Galgiani, Jerry Hill, Mark Leno.
Just a warning that this early-out, this is a snapshot of a moving picture. What to look for this Winter/Spring:
1. If/when will the 12Ys call BS on the Speaker as Caretaker ploy?
2. Can de Leon flip one or two female members of his caucus?
3. Can de Leon avoid being caught-up in Calderongate?
4. Watch for an early Labor endorsement in the Assembly which could change everything.
Stay tuned…
